US Census Population Change
The Hickey Location + Labor Analytics team has done a deep dive into recent data releases, particularly analyzing the post-Covid environment. For in-depth labor insights and location intelligence from your location consulting team at Hickey, please explore our findings and analysis.
National
From 2020 to 2021, the population of the United States increased by nearly 393,000. Notably, this is the first year in the past 10 years in which international migration outnumbered natural change. Both of these components have decreased significantly over the past five years and were exasperated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Year-over-year population increase has fallen from 2.3 million in 2016 to 392,665 in 2021. The natural change component has been in decline since 2014, while international migration has declined since 2016. In the most recent year of estimates, international migration has become a larger component of population change than natural change.
Components of United States Population Change
States
Over the past year, a record eighteen states experienced population loss. These states are largely industrial and located in the Northeast and Midwest, but population loss also extends to states with high proportions of rural populations including Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Kansas, and New Mexico. Significant population loss was also experienced in California.
The remaining thirty-two states grew in population. Growth was especially high in Texas and South Carolina in the South and Southeast. Many Mountain West states had very high population growth as well. In the Northeast, growth was largely limited to Delaware, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Map provided by the US Census Bureau
Metropolitan Areas
At the metropolitan area level, population increases were highest in large metros in the South and West, while losses were highest in large Northeast metros, Midwest metros, and in California. Domestic out-migration of these regions has been increasing since the mid-2010s and decreases in international in-migration have resulted in population losses.
Population growth rates were strongest in mid-sized metro areas in the South, Southeast, and Mountain West. These metro areas generally provide a lower cost of living and greater access to natural amenities such as lakes, beaches, and mountains.
Population decline rates were highest in large, high-cost metros and in smaller to midsized cities that are heavily dependent on contracting industries, such as tourism (Honolulu), energy (Odessa, Midland, Lake Charles), and agriculture (Decatur, Enid).
Counties
At the county level, there were 1,830 counties with positive growth and 1,313 counties with population decline. Counties with high population increases are largely exurban counties of fast-growing metro areas in the South and West. Counties with the highest population declines are in large metros on the coasts and in the Midwest.
The highest rates of population growth in the aforementioned large South and West metros, but also in rural counties in the same areas. The highest rates of population loss occurred in the large metros of the Midwest and the Northeast, but also in high-poverty rural areas in West Virginia, Mississippi, and Louisiana, and in energy-production areas of states like North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas.
Map of the fastest growing and declining counties
An additional trend of county population change is occurring within major metropolitan areas, where core counties are experiencing low growth or decline and are balanced by high-growth in suburban and exurban counties.
Conclusions
The population estimates show that population growth is occurring in large metros in the South and West. Population declines are in higher cost-of-living coastal metros and in industrial Midwestern metros.
The current low levels of natural change and international in-migration mean that relocations have larger effects on state and county populations than before. If natural change and international migration trends rebound, it could be expected that the large metros that are currently declining in population could begin to grow. Despite the current trend of population decline, the New York City metropolitan area still had the highest level of international migration.
Domestic migration will continue to be an important piece of the growth and decline equation. Housing construction at affordable rates is paramount to enabling relocation and allowing burgeoning industries to grow. Metropolitan areas like New York and San Francisco have become increasingly expensive due to relatively low rates of housing construction, while Sunbelt metros like Phoenix, Dallas, and Atlanta have high rates of construction which help drive growth.
Counties – Data Tables
Top counties by population increase:
Population growth at the county level was strongest in Arizona, Texas, California, Florida, and Utah.
The top 10 counties in the US accounted for a population increase of 308,967 or about 78 percent of overall national growth.
The concentration of growth in such a small number of counties is exemplary of the continued trend of population shifting to major urban areas in the Sunbelt and as places of relocation from urban areas in the Midwest and Northeast.
Top population decline by county:
Population decline was highest in large, high cost-of-living counties. The top 10 decline list includes four of five New York City boroughs, and core counties of the Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, San Jose, and Miami metropolitan areas.
Fastest growing counties, over 100,000 population:
The fastest growing counties in the US comprise or are adjacent to smaller metro areas (St. Johns, FL; Washington, UT; Canyon, ID) or are exurban counties of major metropolitan areas in Texas and Arizona.
Fastest declining counties, over 100,000 population:
Population decline rates are highest in very small, rural counties, and in large urban areas in the Northeast and California.
International Migration
International migration in 2021 was highest to core counties of large metro areas across the US.
Metro Areas – Data Tables
Top metro areas by population increase:
Metro areas that added the most population in the past year are entirely located in the South and West.
Top metro areas by population decrease:
Metro areas that lost the most population in the past year are high-cost coastal areas (New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Boston, Miami, Washington) and major Midwest industrial economies (Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh).
Fastest growing metro areas:
The fastest growing metro areas are mid-sized cities in Florida, Myrtle Beach, SC, and mid-sized interior West cities.
Fastest declining metro areas:
The fastest declining metro areas in the past year are those that have energy-dependent economies in Louisiana and Texas, large coastal metros, and Honolulu. Decatur, IL and Enid, OK are smaller metros that have been affected by employer relocations and broader migration trends to larger area.
